Luc Brunet – 25 February 2014
The Maidan events ended up in a very unexpected way some days ago, leaving the country a political vacuum. Dramatic events happened and the death of people is always a loss to their family and community, whatever side they belong to, and our thought go to their loved ones.
This being said, we need to look at the present situation with a practical, and if needed, cynical mindset, as many aspects of those events are far from clear.
First of all the behavior of EU (and US) leaders and media.
As a matter of fact, EU and US politics seem to have a systematic tendency to support opponents in countries that are not considered as “friendly”, and this without looking further than very short term tactics and without understanding what shall be the consequences of such support. Everybody still remember the way the US supported and trained future Al-Qaida elite in Afghanistan when the country was an ally of the Soviet Union. In much more recent events we have seen how the support to the Syrian opposition turned out to go into the hands of sharia fighters whose ultimate goal is to create an Islamic republic including Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, something that is far to be a great perspective for the future of the region and the world.
Since a few months, support was given to the Maidan movement, once again without consideration of who was part of it and indeed led many actions of the movement. Of course a majority of people in the streets were ordinary citizens of Ukraine, fed up with the corruption and the ineffective way the country was led by the Yanukovich team. And I believe this was legitimate, as the Ukrainian government (and by the way its predecessors) did not score much and showed over the last period again its incompetence. However a smaller number of protesters were there with a solid determination and the appropriate skills and tools to organize an armed revolt that would destabilize the country and allow them to impose their views. Nothing here is invented, you all have seen guys with helmets (real ones, not the cycling helmets used by the ordinary un-armed citizens that got shot on the 20 th February), bullet-proof gilets and armed with rifles or automatic weapons. I also invent nothing saying that those groups are structured, disciplined and are aligned with a number of extreme-right groups like Pravy Sektor, asking for a national revolution to get rid of the Russian and the Jew…
EU and US diplomats know that of course, but as always believe in their virtual representation of the world and think that such groups shall vanish soon, overwhelmed by the immense majority of peaceful democrats! At least I hope they honestly believe that…
But reality is extremely hard necked and I do not believe at all in such a rosy future. The country is now in a vacuum and in such situations, history shows that the winners are simply the best organized and strongest determined groups that fill the power vacuum, while good intention masses are given the choice to either follow or be named enemy of the nation.
Was the French foreign minister Laurent Fabius closing his eyes on the anti-Semite rhetoric of key members of the opposition? Did he know that in cities under the influence of such groups, monuments have been erected to celebrate the SS Division Galizien (Galice from the name of a western Ukrainian region) like this one in Lvov?
Did he know that other groups after 1941 and under the leadership of Stepan Bandera supported the Nazis and used the trouble times to “ethnically clean” the region, killing Russians, Poles and Jews? He should think about it perhaps a bit more!
Now what is next?
If Western powers want to prove their good faith in that story and show that they really care about the people in Ukraine, and not just about winning one point on the geopolitical game, they should ask for the following to be done by the new Ukrainian leaders :
– an open and international investigation to really know who shot people in the streets of Kiev in February. Police people were also killed and the dead and their families deserve to know exactly why they have been shot by snipers and who did it
– corruption investigations should be done about Yanukovich ruling period, but also about his predecessors, and results published
– actions have to be taken about extremist groups (disarming them and making them illegal, like was done in Greece)
– abandon arbitrary laws voted this week, for example imposing the use of Ukrainian and make Russian again one of official languages for the country
It is NOW that Western powers have to unite with Russia (who never was a great supporter of Yanukovich by the way) and impose the basic rules of democracy in the Ukraine, if necessary sending UN troops to ensure that freedom and fair treatment for all is ensured.
Shall they achieve that or even half of it? I let you judge by yourself.
But unless this is done, and fast, the path is clear, and it is downwards.
The country, without financial support from Russia shall go bankrupt very fast. Shall EU and the US replace that support and spend billions of Euros per months to save the country while they are themselves close to insolvability? Again judge by yourself, especially if you live in the EU and shall have the pay from your taxes at the end of the day. For US citizen, no way to fear about that as your government knows when involvement is profitable and when it is better to pass the bill to the Europeans… Counting on further support from Russia is illusion, as Russia shall not pour money in an unstable country whose leaders voice a very anti-Russian stance.
In parallel, the increase in anti-Russian feelings in the west and Kiev shall push eastern regions to declare independence and ask for Russian protection. Russia really does not need that and I believe is praying for that not to happen, but shall hardly be able to refuse as the Russian voters would not allow that and the military base in Crimea has to be protected. Economic reasons also push for a split, as most industrial activities are in the east and companies sell a majority of products to Russia, with little hope to pass EU normative requirements, that would mean a total change of production standards in case of a so called “EU integration”.
Here we go for a new Yugoslav drama, with population moves, ethnic cleansing and so on, but in a much larger scale, and with a few countries still having territory claims on parts of the Ukraine, like Hungary or Moldova. And again like in Yugoslavia, remembrance of WW2 and hatred sentiments hidden for years come back to the surface.
One question remains open on my views, and this is the position of the Ukrainian armed forces. Are they following the traditional posture of the Russian army to avoid being involved in political disputes (rule broken in 1993 at the request of Boris Yeltsin), or are they too devised to act? Did Yanukovich ask for army intervention and was it turned down? Lots of work still to be done to understand what exactly happened and does happen in that 46 million people country!