Luc Brunet – 29 October 2024
My last article was posted already 8 months ago, end of February 2024. Such a long period of silence is quite rare on my side, and is mainly due to the need to let time do its work. Only time makes trends more visible and allows to confirm or not our expectations.
What happened during those 8 months did not bring anything new to my reflexion. The analysis I published here or on my Telegram channel about the slow but unstoppable evolution of the world have not been proven false by the events, and not even challenged.
My worst forecasts, on the contrary, look more and more probable as time goes by, as western leaders continue to live in denial mode, and in a growing hysteria.
Missed opportunities in 2024
The western world had some opportunities to stop or at least slow down the train now speeding to disaster.
In the US, the country political elites and the ruling oligarchs may have found a way to propose reasonable and competent candidates to the November elections. But after 4 years of being ruled by a senile president, Americans now have to chose between a lady unable to articulate a single logical phrase between two rounds of laughs, and a business wizard, looking indeed more like a used cars salesman than like a political genius. All this in the background of very suspicious vote counting practices.
In Europe, populations have clearly indicated their wish to stop the current suicidal policies, cutting the region from vital cheap energy from Russia, and the desire to get rid of the undemocratic rule of the EU Commission. But in all cases, democracy proved to be falsified. Like in the US, the two main parties in the UK implement the same politics, and in France and Germany, all is done to deny the choice of the people, to ensure that the current policies continue to be implemented, whatever voters wish.
The race between hope and despair
As I wrote long ago, the fight going on between the old Western World and the young Global South is now fought in the open, and the stakes are so high on both sides that none of the two can step down. Therefore, my hope was that the west would collapse or change course before the political fight could lead to a generalized military confrontation. Unfortunately, it is now clear that the Western elites are ready to everything in order to save their privileges.
Like a wounded wild boar, Western elites have reached an unprecedented level of verbal aggressiveness, often combined with physical aggressiveness. Can you remember ministers or government officials 20 or 30 years ago using terms like the ones used by Ben Gvir, Biden or Clinton?
- Biden in February 2024 called Putin a “crazy son-of-a-bitch”. Imagine Roosevelt saying that publicly about Stalin…
- Clinton compared Trump’s election meetings to nazi rallies. Imagine Mitterrand saying that about Chirac’s meetings..
- Ben Gvir said about Palestinian prisoners: “They are scum, they are murderers, they are human animals, they should not be released — they should be shot in the head in a properly run country”. Imagine Margaret Thatcher saying that about British miners in the 70’s (well, she at least kept that for herself)…
In a big part of the world, opposition is black or white and there is no place for negotiations or compromises. In 2022, Ukraine and Russia were about to agree on a compromise between the two Slavic sister nations, but NATO stopped the process, as the goal was to weaken Russia. Now that Russia is winning (and this was predictable for anyone knowing a little bit about Russian reality), the western elites shall not step back and look for an agreement. They shall escalate.
Escalation is the only acceptable option for people living in a bubble, and absolutely convinced that they are right and that they are also stronger than any opponent.
But indeed, as explained by writer Francois Martin, the opposition between the west and the Global South is not a simple disagreement about the type of society we want to develop, but about the meaning of the life of each individuals, the personal values that we believe in. It is by far more that a split between “democracy” and “authoritarianism”. This explains the fact that the two worlds are incompatible and cannot coexist.
The evolution of human manipulation
As discussed in an article published in 2021, “WW3 has started!”, the manipulation of people’s opinion started to play a large role in our life after the wide alphabetization of the populations, and since then was regularly improved with the invention of radio, TV, and more recently Internet. We know the effects of such manipulation, based on propaganda (you can call it fake news) or sometimes even more efficiently, on the absence of information, made possible when all official media are owned by a few oligarchs.
Combined with a general trend, essentially in the west, to mostly promote individual and consumer values, we also see a growing indifference to the loss of human lives.
Looking at the recent conflict in the Middle-East, it is impressing to see the total indifference in the west about the tens of thousands of civilian lives in Gaza. The same phenomena happened in Donbass a few years ago, of course at a smaller scale. At the same time, nobody reacts to horrendous opinions expressed by officials (not bloggers, but ministers or parliament members) again in Kiev or Tel-Aviv naming their opponents sub-people or animals that should be eliminated, from elderly to babies. Similar hate speeches were rarely or never heard since 1945, but they are back now.
Although some parts of the population in the west understand that times are changing and that their countries are on the wrong side of history, I seriously doubt that populations shall have the physical courage to fight for the future of their children (that they less and less produce) and stand-up against the globalist elite. My main hope to avoid a general disaster was to see western crowds forcing a change of system, but I unfortunately less and less believe that this is a possible out-come. The last chance may be the outcome of the US elections next week. Not because of the strengh of the candidates, but because of the events that may follow the elections, that could target the globalist elite in its kernel.
Unless this happens, a further escalation is most probable, and the only question is how far it shall go.
Four fronts at least
As mentioned in previous articles, the Ukrainian front is only the first of a number of fronts, all of them on the US agenda in order to maintain or even develop its international dominance.
All of the fronts are located around the continental powers lead by Russia and China.
- Israel vs Iran: one of the most aggressive underdog of the US hegemonic power against an ally of Russia/China, it cannot be more clear.
- Taiwan vs China: another US underdog, although more reasonable than Israel against the largest world economy and one of the leaders of the Global South
- North Korea vs South Korea: this is the first time I mention that one, but it is now reactivated, especially after the signature of a cooperation treaty between Russia and North Korea
To be complete, other fronts can also be activated, like for example:
- Albania vs Serbia: also a proxy between the West and the rest of the world
- and of course the countries at risk of an expansion of the Ukrainian conflict, like Moldova, Poland, the Baltics and Finland.
Distributed world war
Nobody can predict what shall happen, but let’s consider a few points essential to understand what is at stake.
The Russian nuclear deterrent plays a key role, as all players understand that Russia has 10 to 15 years advance in hypersonic missile technology and anti-missile systems. It means that the core of the western side, the US, is and shall remain very careful about avoiding a direct nuclear conflict with Russia. The US is used to fight wars abroad, and is very concerned about any risk for their own territories. This plays an important role in all decision making in war times. It also means that the US shall step back from any situation where they may risk a direct hit from Russia. The term “any situation” is important and countries like Israel, Poland, or Finland should pay attention to that.
Unless the US radically changes course after the next elections, we should see:
- in ex-Ukraine, we see now a regular progress of Russian troops and significant cities shall be liberated over the next weeks. NATO shall soon be in the seat of the loser and it cannot survive it, thus a growing hysteria and attempts to escalate further. But in Europe, Russia is the direct opponent, and we can expect the US to avoid any risk in that region. Europeans shall be asked to take all the risks and the present EU leaders, totally unable to think in terms of the best interest of their countries and people, may take such risks. Consequences could be significant, and Europe may lose a few key sites from missile attacks (not necessary nuclear), but my take is that the US shall not escalate themselves and shall use the old trick: “if you cannot defend yourselves, don’t take it personal, but we go home”.
- in the Middle-East, the Israeli army succeeds in killing masses of civilians, but is in trouble in south Lebanon, losing people and tanks everyday. Time is playing against Netanyau and his only hope is to get the US involved directly. In that, he is exactly like Zelensky: not able to win alone, but failing to get the US involved. Same dead-end for the two politicians and the two countries.
- in Taiwan and South Korea, we can expect the US to risk more, as the main opponent is China and Russia may be less prone to get involved. However, if the two camps get into more formal war alliances, the risk to see Russia directly or indirectly involved increases. The recent agreement signed between Russia and North Korea points to that direction.
All in all, less and less obstacles are stopping a more generalized military confrontation, but limited to a number of hot spots where all strategically significant players (US, Russia, China, Iran – and no, the EU is not in the list) can keep enough control of the situation to avoid a direct nuclear duel. All the rest is possible, and the ones paying the big price shall be the smaller countries used as proxy. Look at what is left of Ukraine to understand.