Luc Brunet – 24 February 2024
This article shall be quite unusual and difficult, as I shall try to describe possible geopolitical scenarios for the years to come.
But the exercise is not completely new for me, and I several times tried to figure out the future. To be honest, I must say that I was quite right in many assumption, at the exception of one factor: timing. The best example is the implosion of the US dollar under the pressure of the debt after the 2008 crisis. The situation, thanks to a good control by the US of the financial markets and financial flows around the world, could continue on and on until now, and only now can we see the risks growing, with the de-dollarisation of the international economy, largely due by the way to the sanctions against Russia in 2022.
Inertia is an important factor and in many cases, changes do not happen as fast as predicted. But the trends stay the same, making the issue unavoidable, even if delayed.
The following chapter partially repeats what I wrote in previous articles, but it is important to understand the landscape where the present events are taking place.
The end of 500 years of colonialism
The dominance of Europe in world affairs started around 500 years ago, with a fast growth of its population and advances in technology that allowed countries like Britain, France of Spain to to navigate far away with reasonably secure ships, able to transport large quantity of people and goods.
The European powers almost absorbed the rest of the world, and several types of colonization can be identified:
- the genocidal type, mostly used by northern European countries, of course in north American with the elimination of the local populations, but also in Australia and New-Zealand. The relatively low number of locals made it possible
- the failed genocidal type, where hunger, production of drugs was used but did not lead to a real decrease of the local populations. India and China are examples of that option, that failed due to a very large population compared to the number of people Europeans could move there to impose the rules by force
- a softer option was mostly used by southern Europeans and France, for example in south America and Africa. Locals were not physically eliminated, but rather used as working power. Although softer than a genocide, this option is still an exploitation of the colonized countries and presenting the period as a golden age bringing local population to civilization is by far exaggerated. The flow of African slaves sent/sold to the Americas is a good example in that respect.
The colonial period ended in the middle of the 20th century, at least formally. In reality, the physical colonization, maintained by military force, was replaced by an economical colonization, where guns and soldiers were replaced by financial control and corrupt local leaders. In parallel, the overall European domination was replaced by a US domination, understandable if you look at the very dominant place of the US in the production of good and services worldwide at that time.
Again, the old instruments of colonization called weapons, forced evangelization, gunboat diplomacy were replaced by commercial agreements controlled by the west, the IMF, the World Bank, and some violence when the situation looked too dangerous for the interests of the west. Let’s look at each region.
In South America, the US replaced Europe, not only economically, but also politically, with regular actions to punish countries not complying to the western direction, like in Chile in 1973, bringing Pinochet to power.
In Africa, the ex-colonizers took the economic control and continued the low cost exploitation of natural resources, with the support of the local corrupted elites. When a country wanted to change things and get control of the profits from selling those resources, assassination was often used, like against Patrice Lumumba, Mehdi Ben Barka or more recently Muammar Gaddafi. Africa, after 60 years of independence, is still a poor continent – not a positive result of the de-colonization. Although production sent to the world is very large, most profits are taken away by western companies operating on the continent, a system used everywhere, and the basic tool of what I call economical colonization, or neo-colonialism.
In Asia, the evolution was very similar but challenged by more countries, like Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and others. We all know what happened to those countries.
Finally we need to consider Russia as an exception. First, Russia was never colonized by Europe, instead of unsuccessful attempts. Second, it never went the colonization adventure and never sent its soldiers to remote shores. As a true continental power, it expended in territories around it, mostly creating a buffer around its core regions. Russia never got rich with those territories.
Who are fighting the on-going wars?
I many times since 2008 wrote about the war between the west and the rest of the world. Many laughed or un-friended me.
Now Russian, Chinese, EU or US official openly refer to a martial posture between the two groups, clearly stating that the goal is to weaken or even destroy Russia. The first steps towards that destruction were made in the 90’s, as described in my article “The Russia of their Dreams” published in 2015. But the attempt failed in 2000.
Until 2024, Russian leaders, being naive or afraid of what was being prepared, refrained to use such terms. Now they do, and make it clear that Russia has to be destroyed to ensure the survival of the western lead “global government”, and that symmetrically, the survival of Russia requires the destruction of the west.
It cannot be clearer.
Now let’s consider who are the two sides and their respective allies or satellites.
The West on one side includes of course the US as leader, followed by what they tend to call the “international community”, that is Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, New-Zealand, South Korea, and a few very submitted countries in Latin America or in Asia like Philippines.
One country has to be added, Israel. That small country in the Middle-East had an opportunity to develop a privileged relationship with Russia, allowing to implement a real peace with Palestine and an appeasement in its relationship with Iran, eventually joining the BRICS. But its dependence on the US and its deep connection with the Jewish lobby in the US made that totally impossible. On the contrary they now engaged in a colonial war, where “europeans” take the territories of “locals” by force. The worst moment ever.
Like in Ukraine, the new Israeli generations have been raised in the hate of Arabs (hate of Russians in Ukraine). The result is the criminal behavior of their soldiers and the arrogant speech of their political leaders, just like in Ukraine. The result shall be the same, and like all countries based on the hate of others in the past, they shall not survive the coming changes.
On the other side of the fight, we can count all the other countries, meaning all the ex-colonies of the west, plus Russia, even if some countries are still hesitating, one day supporting the west, the other day condemning it, like India or Turkey.
Let’s call that side the Global South. Indeed an assembly of all ex-colonized countries, now no longer afraid of the military force of the west. Thus the feeling that they really seem to enjoy teaching a lesson to their old masters.
Where are the respective strengths?
Economy: although the economical weight of the west is still very high, it is indeed less than you can read on charts comparing GNPs between countries. After years of delocalization, the GNP of the US and Europe includes a very large amount of services, that indeed do not bring anything when you compare forces before a military conflict. We have seen the impact of that when many people in 2022 assumed that Russia, with a GNP close to the one of Italy had no chance to survive in front of NATO weapons and western sanctions. They were wrong big time. And most countries in the Global South have a production and industrial type of GNP like Russia.
Technology: in terms of weaponry, Russia proved more advanced than the west after two years of war in Ukraine. Joined efforts with China and Iran makes an even bigger difference.
Human material: most Global South countries have been untouched by the woke type of development that we see in the west. People are ready to fight for their motherland and defend their traditions, especially against the western materialist and egoistic patterns, not even to mention the LGBT hysteria. In the west, most of the younger generation has been raised to be good consumers and have no desire to give up their material comfort to defend.. what? the non-elected EU elites? their aging and already tired (I am polite today) POTUS? Additionally in the US, around 70% of the young population is unfit for the military due to overweight, health or addiction issues.
Russia and China are also getting a decrease of population, but nothing to compare to Japan or Germany, and shall whatever happens be careful not to lose too many people in a conflict. This is by the way the main limitation in the engagement of Russia, that indeed can only be appreciated by the Russian population!
Military Industry: as demonstrated during the 2 years of operations in Ukraine, Russia has been able to accelerate the production of weapons of all sorts, while the west have almost emptied their stock of weapons to support one single field of operations in Ukraine.
On each of the four criteria above, the Global South has a clear advantage.
What can be expected in 2024
I assume that Russia shall win in Ukraine and this can really happen during 2024, the Ukrainian army already showing signs of panic. Kiev is by the way pushed under the bus by the US Republican party, that anticipates a failure and wants it to happen before the US elections in November 2024, making a victory even more probable for them, and allowing them to put all the responsibility of the disaster on the Democrats.
What shall come next is depending on the level of folly of NATO and the west, and their potential decision to involve other countries and expend the conflict for example to Moldova or even Poland. A new option also appears with bilateral agreements signed between Kiev and a few NATO countries like France, Italy, Germany or Canada, that would allow those countries to send troops to Ukraine without formally engage NATO.
But we should keep in mind that Ukraine is not the only battlefield. Israel is another one, Taiwan can be the next one, and many others may come up, even in less probable places.
More importantly, I believe that another conflict has now started, this one inside the US, where more and more people and States understand that Washington is bringing the country to a disaster. Of course the issues with illegal migrants is very visible, but many other society issues like drugs, LGBT, education and more are splitting the US population in two camps. The conservatives are indeed close to the Global South in the way they want the world to evolve, and do not accept the “world government” promoted by Soros and the WEF.
This conflict in the US is in 2024 the most important for all of us. If it develops fast, it can save us from world war. The split of the US into several countries would achieve all what is required to avoid such a war:
– marginalization of the neo-liberals in the US, and the creation of new countries that can find common language with Russia, China and other Global South countries
– dismantlement of key organizations that are at the origin of most of world instability and problems: the Pentagon, the US military industry, the CIA and its vassals MI6 and Mossad, Bilderberg, the IMF and the World Bank, and of course NATO and the EU
– correlated with the collapse of the EU, is the revival of sovereign states in Europe. As wrote E Todd in his latest book: “the best that can happen to Europe is the end of the US”. Also induced shall be the US leaving the Middle-East, leaving Israel alone surrounded by millions of vindicative Arabs. Only Russia shall be able to help avoiding a bloodbath, and shall do it, as always.
Without such a split and collapse of the US, the scenario may be grimmer. Looking at the lack of empathy, of culture and the arrogance of many western leaders, a Russian victory in Ukraine may lead to a hysterical escalation and the use of nuclear ballistic missiles become then a real possibility.
Other unexpected events could also help in accelerating the collapse of the west before the disaster, but the US conservatives, lead by Texas, seem to me the only ones able to initiate the change inside the west. They are determined, have a lot of weapons, real political leadership, and have no fear. European populations on the contrary have no weapons, no alternative political leadership, and have no chance to achieve a real change in Europe.