France Unrests

Luc Brunet – 2 July 2023

I usually avoid writing about events that are still developing. Today shall be an exception in relation with the current situation in France and western Europe.

First of all, let me  remind you of an article that I wrote in 2020, called “The French deadly Triangle”

French Society’s deadly Triangle

In a few words, it describes the tensions between three groups in French society:

• the elites and the group of wokes evolving around them, often mistakenly believing they are elites themselves (called Bobo group in 2020, but wokes is a more international term)
• the outcast group, mostly including long time, but marginalized migrants or new ones (called Migrants in 2020, but I prefer now the name outcast)
• the majority group of citizens, many living outside of large cities, and many being well integrated migrants

As explained in my 2020 article, I consider the suburban and woke groups to be associated today, although it may change in the future. The reason is that the outcast group gets its income from the elites, be it social allowances or money in exchange for drugs. But outside of money, nothing unites the wokes and the outcasts. They profoundly dislike each other, although many wokes claim the opposite, at least until their own car gets torched.

What we see today are outcasts in hysterically violent mode. But this violence is until now no threat to the elites. The violence we see now is a form of shopping therapy to compensate for their frustration and rage after one of them was killed. The last time, it was because of a football match. There is nothing political about what they do. They just want to destroy and consume (looting is a form of consuming). They indeed essentially destroy equipment and places that are part of their own community and of the community of the majority.

All what is destroyed now is not a problem for the wokes who live in peace away from the suburbs, and even less for the elites who may even see there a business opportunity for the reconstruction to come.

Several details also confirm that, for example that the events now spread to other countries, where Macron has no impact, or that the real center of power in Paris is untouched, and I mean with that the triangle Monceau-Neuilly-Porte de St Cloud. Similarly, no symbols of the elite’s power are attacked, like TV, Radio, press, ministries etc. It is right that town-halls or other state building are attacked in smaller town, but those are not symbols of the elite’s power, but are part of the majority ecosystem.

All this on my views explains the low level of reaction and fear on the side of the French government and of French elites. They were much more afraid and uncomfortable at the beginning of the Yellow Vests movement some years ago, that was politically motivated and supported by millions.

My guess is that the elite views the present violences as a way to increase the tensions between parts of society and as an excuse for a severe censorship of Internet, something they talk about since years.

How shall the situation evolve is hard to guess, but the outcasts, if not provoked too violently shall continue a few days, then get bored, not knowing what to do with the stuff they stole, and peace shall come back until the next event, may be a football match again. What shall be left is a much stronger censorship of Internet.

I do not see any synergy between the outcasts and the majority as they are fundamentally incompatible. But more violence may come from an unexpected event. We need to understand that a lot of heavy weaponry has been sold in Ukraine over the past 16 months and some of it may be used instead of fireworks, and the military may intervene, invited or not by the elite.

But this is another story.

For more real-time comments, do not hesitate to join my Telegram channel:  https://t.me/+v_KXJy6luuYzNWQy

Take care!